The Warshaw Curve

Later this week I'll start explicating some of the details of the Curve.  But in the meantime, when thinking about trends my mind always wanders to one of my favorite scenes from the Beatles' first feature film, "A Hard Days Night" (1964).

For those unfamiliar with the film, here's the set-up for this brief, absolute gem of scene about trends and the people who study and market them:

Just hours before the band is supposed to perform live on British television, Ringo is nowhere to be found. The producers are panic stricken.  John, Paul and George split up to look for Ringo, and each has his own brief encounter; George's fate is to unwittingly become an accidental one-man focus group for a trend master.

Enjoy. 

Here at CES in Las Vegas, Sling Media is showing off their new SlingCatcher — the reverse cousin of their Slingbox.

While the SlingBox let's you watch your home TV on your computer — even if you're on the other side of the globe (by taking the signal from your TV and running it through a SlingBox that's connected to the internet, and allowing you to access that SlingBox from any remote computer via the web) — the SlingCatcher lets you play anything from your computer on your TV: Now your whole family can watch on your big new flat-screen TV all of your personal videos stored, for example, on Motionbox.com or any other webclips.

Clearly, we're talkin' more content for the left-side of the Curve!  (More on that later.)

Below's a video clip of the SlingCatcher in action.  To watch the brief part I've highlighted, either click the play button or pull down the "Jump to Tag" menu and choose: "Motionbox on TV via the SlingCatcher."

As Daisy Whitney of TVWeek points out in her comment to this post, I originally neglected to mention that the SlingCatcher combined with yet another device called the "SlingProjector" will allow users to "Sling" TV-to-TV, as well as TV-to-Web and Web-to-TV.  This means that you'll soon be able to watch stuff recorded on your living room TiVo/DVR on your bedroom TV — or, for that matter, on any other TV anywhere in the world.

Think of it this way: with the Sling solution your TiVo/DVR will soon become your personal central server, storing TV shows and movies, all of which you can access on any TV anywhere, at any time.  (No doubt this will further decrease your desire to ever read a book again, or rent a movie from the local Blockbuster near your country house.)

Bottom line for the individual content consumer:

More viewing of webclips (left-side of the curve) played off their computer but watched on their TV; more viewing of episodes of high-end content, such as movies and high-end prime time shows, like "House" (the right-side of the curve) stored on their TiVo/DVR; and less and less random viewing of mid-level content —  the stuff that drops out of the middle of the Curve in the post-DVR world.

So, now along with "What you want, when you want, where you want," you can add how you want it (on a big screen).

Steve Bryant,who writes Hollywood Reporter's terrific "Reel Pop" blog has some interesting observations and supporting statistics re The Curve.  (Thanks, Steve.)

What is the Warshaw Curve?  (Or, perhaps more to the point: Why?)

Well, the modestly named Warshaw Curve is two things:

First, it's a pattern of content consumption.  More specifically, it's the contrast between two different patterns of video content consumption: a contrast between how all of us used to consume video content in the fading world of scheduled "traditional media," and how more and more of us now enjoy video in the ever-growing, on-demand and interactive world.

It's a concept I started noodling around with a couple of months ago, and recently started showing to a few friends who work in various corners of the media industry. 

(Usually I'd tentatively bring it up at the end of a conversation about something else entirely, I would draw the curves on the back of a piece of paper or napkin, sketchily put forth the idea and ask my companions for their thoughts.  During one particularly fruitful conversation, Andrew Heyward dubbed it, "The Warshaw Curve."  And, honestly, who am I to argue with Mr. Heyward?)

Below is the curve for TV News and Entertainment.

              (Click on the images to enlarge them.)

So, what's the significance of the Curve? 

I'm still noodling with that — but almost all the folks I've showed it to agree that, unlike Gertrude Stein's opinion of the city of Oakland, there's at least some there, there.  Or, more to the point, in the words of Stephen Stills: "There's something happening here. What it is ain't exactly clear."

But the pattern is real, and I do think it tells us something about the direction in which content consumption is heading — and that has a good deal of significance for content producers, programmers and distributors. 

(I'll posit some of the details in future posts.)

Which finally brings us to the second thing that is "The Warshaw Curve"; i.e. this blog: 

More than just a place to post my musings on the curve, this blog is a place where I hope others will post their responses, thoughts and challenges. A place to think collaboratively along some of the tangents of the curve.  It's also a place where I'll be posting some examples of other trends that I've been encountering, and even some interviews with folks who work and play on various slopes along the curve.

So, here goes nothing.

Or, just maybe, something...............?